On May 3, local time, the US non-farm payrolls report for April was much lower than expected, raising expectations of Fed interest rate cuts and rekindling the market's hopes of interest rate cuts in the third quarter.
European and American stock markets collectively closed higher, with the three major US stock indexes all up more than 1%. The Nasdaq and S & P 500 closed higher for two consecutive days, and the Dow rose for three days in a row. Technology stocks and chip stocks performed strongly, with Apple up 5%Casinobonusgames.97%, the largest daily increase in nearly a year and a half.
Hot Chinese stocks continued to rise, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index closing higher for three days in a row, refreshing its closing high since October 2023. The offshore RMB rose more than 400 points against the dollar at one point, breaking 7.17 for the first time since January 25.
Non-farm report rekindles hopes of Fed interest rate cut
Data show that non-farm payrolls in the United States increased by 175000 after the quarterly adjustment in April, and are expected to increase by 243000, from an increase of 303000 to an increase of 315000. The US unemployment rate in April is 3.9%, which is expected to be 3.8%, and the previous value is 3.8%. Us non-farm payrolls report data for April were much lower than expected, and the unemployment rate did not stabilize in April, but rose slightly to 3.9 per cent.
In addition, the report also shows signs of cooling inflation. The average hourly wage in the United States rose 3.9% in April from a year earlier, and is expected to rise 4.0%. The previous value rose 4.1%.
The jobs report rekindled expectations of a Fed rate cut and revived hopes of a rate cut in the third quarter. After the release of the report, traders increased their bets on a rate cut in September, and the earliest cut is expected to start in September from November before the report was released, reflecting the pricing of swap contracts. Traders expect interest rate cuts to rise to about 50 basis points this year from about 41 basis points before the report was released.
Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management, said the unexpected decline in employment data and the decline in average hourly wage growth for the first time in months may explain why Federal Reserve Chairman Colin Powell remained moderate on Wednesday.
Jamie Cox, managing partner of Harris Financial Group, saidCasinobonusgamesThe overall weakening of the employment report is generally good for the market. Weak wage growth will help dispel fears of a massive rise in inflation. "
Economists at Wells Fargo said it was still possible for the Fed to start cutting interest rates in September, and April jobs report data showed that the job market remained tight, supporting a further slowdown in inflation. Although a rate cut in June is unlikely, the first rate cut is expected to begin in September.
After the jobs report, the US ISM non-manufacturing index in April was also worse than expected, falling below the 50% divide between boom and bust and entering a contraction range, falling to a four-year low. Data show that the non-manufacturing PMI of ISM in the United States in April was 49.4, the lowest since December 2022, with an expectation of 52 and a previous value of 51.4.
European and American stock markets rose collectively.
Technology and chip stocks perform brilliantly
After the release of the data, U. S. stocks opened higher and maintained a rising trend, with all three major stock indexes up more than 1%. By the close, the Dow was up 1.18% at 38675.68, the S & P was up 1.26% at 5127.79, the biggest one-day gain since Feb. 22, and the Nasdaq was up 1.99% at 16156.33, according to Wind. The Nasdaq and the S & P 500 closed higher for two days in a row, while the Dow rose for three days in a row.
Technology stocks rose across the board, with apple up more than 8% at one point and closing up 5.97%, the biggest one-day gain in nearly a year and a half, with a total market capitalization of $159.516 billion (a total of about 1.155076 trillion yuan).
Apple reported a decline in revenue in Greater China last quarter and expects total revenue to return to growth this quarter, launching the largest $110 billion (796.5 billion yuan) buyback program in history and raising its quarterly dividend by 4 per cent to 25 cents a share.
That means Apple broke its previous record for the largest buyback and raised its dividend yield for 12 consecutive quarters.
Netflix, Google, Microsoft and others rose more than 2%. Chip stocks performed strongly, with TSMC, Nvidia, Asma, Broadcom, Applied Materials and Chaowei Semiconductor all up more than 3%, Microcore Technology and Micron Technology up more than 2%, and Intel up more than 1%.
The three major European stock indexes closed higher. By the end of the day, Germany's DAX index was up 0.54 per cent at 17993.69, France's CAC40 was up 0.54 per cent at 7957.57 and the UK's FTSE was up 0.51 per cent at 8213.49, according to Wind.
Hot Chinese stocks continue their outstanding performance.
Hot Chinese stocks continued to rise, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising 1.73%, closing higher for three consecutive days and setting a new closing high since October 2023.
New Oriental, Ctrip Group and NetEase rose by more than 4%, Shell, Tencent Music, Zhihu and Haofui by more than 3%, Baidu and Alibaba by more than 1%, and JD.com by more than 1%. New energy vehicle stocks fell across the board, with Xiaopeng and ideal cars falling more than 3%.
In terms of weekly performance, the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index is up 5.53% this week after rising 8.84% last week.
On the exchange rate side, the decline in the dollar index expanded rapidly after the employment report, wiping out all gains since the announcement last month of faster-than-expected faster-than-expected CPI growth last month. The dollar index fell 0.28% to 105.0851 at the close of trading in New York on May 3, local time, to an intraday low of 104.5210, the lowest since April 10.
Non-US currencies rose during the day, with the offshore RMB rising more than 400 points against the dollar at one point, breaking 7.17 for the first time since January 25. At the close of trading in New York, the offshore RMB was up 144bp against the dollar at 7.1916.
In addition, the yen recovered 152 against the dollar for the first time in more than three weeks, rebounding more than 1% from its intraday low and shrugging off the risk that the Japanese government might intervene again this week. At the close of trading in New York, the dollar fell 0.47 per cent against the yen to 152.9745, down 3.38 per cent this week.
Gold and crude oil jumped high and then dived
Among commodities, gold prices rose rapidly in the short term after the release of the US jobs report, but then quickly fell to an one-month intraday low. Spot gold in London was last at $2301.93 per ounce, down 0.05 per cent. Comex gold futures closed up 0.02 per cent at $2310.1 per ounce.
Some analysts said that despite the disappointing US non-farm payrolls data in April, inflation is still too high for the Fed to cut interest rates at its next meeting, limiting the recent performance of gold prices.
From the weekly performance, London spot gold and COMEX gold futures fell 1.53% and 1.58% respectively this week, both of which fell back for the second week in a row.
东证衍生品研究院宏观策略首席分析师徐颖表示，金价近期出现周度级别回调，一方面是地缘局势风险带来的避险情绪有所缓和；另一方面则是缺乏上涨动能，多头获利了结带来阶段性的回调压力，但市场并不恐慌或抛售黄金。短期来看，美国通胀压力犹存，想要打压通胀就必须维持高利率，对供给端的影响偏弱，经济面临的衰退风险增加。短期来看，黄金面临一定的压力，但中长期仍具有上涨动能。
美国就业报告发布后，国际原油价格短线上行并刷新日内新高，但随后也出现回落并转跌。国际油价全线走低，美油6月合约跌1.22%报77.99美元/桶；布油7月合约跌0.98%报82.85美元/桶。
（注：文中图片均来源于Wind）
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