Main points of investment: non-plague prevention and control is a protracted war, and the epidemic prevention ability of pigs is very important to the epidemic prevention effect. The complex protein coat structure and genome make African classical swine fever easy to accumulate mutations in space and time during transmission, which makes it difficult to develop a vaccine; non-plague populations have batch characteristics and need continuous epidemic prevention; the development of African classical swine fever also has a general trend of increasing infectivity, but reducing toxicity, the ability of pig epidemic prevention is very important. The impact of non-plague intensified in 2023, and pig prices rose slightly in March. Non-plague has been introduced since 2018.Seagames1998In China, with sustainable development up to now, its spread has geographical and seasonal characteristics, spreading from north to south. Pig prices have been depressed for a long time since 2023, pig farms in order to save costs, reduce health and epidemic prevention investment, superimposed graded epidemic prevention to relax the control of low-risk areas, and finally aggravated the severity of non-plague in 2023. We analyzed the pig cycle model under the epidemic and verified the pig price since 2023, and found that the outbreak of the disease in October 2023 led to a shortage of market supply in March 2024, and pig prices rebounded slightly. Follow-up points: southern rainy season and vaccine research and development. The south enters the period of high temperature and heavy rain, which is prone to torrential rain and flood, which increases the difficulty of prevention and control of non-plague and other swine plague. Follow-up need to continue to pay attention to the impact of the southern rainy season on follow-up epidemic prevention, or promote the marginal acceleration of industry capacity removal; non-plague vaccine research and development, waiting for industry breakthroughs. Risk indicates uncertainty of non-plague; extreme weather uncertainty; feed price uncertainty. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.